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The Merchant · n°182 · March 5, 2026

"There is a little bit of fatigue... in the industry because you draw 10 contingency plans only to tear them all up because there is a new twist and a new angle to it."

Figure of the week

100 Around 100 container ships and around 750 vessels in total are currently backed up around the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, according to ONE.

Quote of the week

“There is a little bit of fatigue… in the industry because you draw 10 contingency plans only to tear them all up because there is a new twist and a new angle to it.” Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” how many shippers will be feeling following the latest round of geopolitics-related supply chain disruption.

Shippers brace for Middle East blowback

The US-Israeli attack on Iran and Iran’s quick and widespread response has already started to cause major supply chain disruption in the Middle East. The question for many US shippers, however, is how much and where the wider effects will be felt. Iran’s effective closure of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz is likely to affect about 20% of global oil production. This means that the most immediate threat to US shippers with no direct ties to the Middle East is likely to be rising oil prices. Even a temporary block of the strait could lead oil prices to rise high enough that it causes inflation and reduces consumer demand. Higher oil prices will also translate into higher container spot rates. However, Bloomberg commodities analyst Javier Blas said: “The Middle East isn’t about to trigger an oil shock. It may be a wobble, perhaps a tremor. It may even get nasty, but the economy isn’t heading into recession.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced a program to mitigate energy costs due to the war, though he has offered no further details on what this program would consist of. Part of the problem for the US military is that even successful attacks on Iran’s navy and the missile forces capable of attacking vessels in the strait will not necessarily persuade insurers. Many have already begun to withdraw coverage from vessels passing through the area. President Donald Trump has announced a plan for the US Navy to escort vessels through the area but details of this remain vague. Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, warned that the ripple effects of the attack on Iran will be felt across global trade lanes. Around 10% of the global container shipping fleet is stranded inside the Persian Gulf or held up outside in cargo backups that are going to start affecting key hubs in Europe and Asia. These backups, which could take several weeks to make their effects felt, could even cause ripple delays on other trade lanes. However, Johan Sigsgaard, executive vice president of Maersk, said the effect on trades outside the Middle East would depend on how long the conflict lasted. In the longer term, of course, one effect of the conflict will be to effectively rule out any major return to Red Sea routings anytime soon. US shippers, however, are most likely to be worried about the potential inflationary effects and further consumer downturns if the conflict escalates .

Iran war provokes global air freight capacity crunch

US air cargo shippers can expect delays in moving freight from China and Southeast Asia because of the Middle East conflict , industry insiders have said. Freight experts have warned shippers to expect backlogs beginning just before or just after the weekend due to the large amount of capacity grounded by the war in the Middle East. Airports in China and throughout Southeast Asia are set to be affected. By Tuesday morning, around 3,000 flights had been canceled due to the conflict. Aviation data specialist Cirium said airspace over Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the UAE was at least partially closed. The result was a drop in global air cargo capacity by around 18%. Several major carriers, including Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo and Etihad have halted services connecting with the affected airspace. Many carriers have also invoked force majeure clauses in their contracts that enable them to suspend standard SLAs and transit time guarantees. Even once airspace reopens, shippers can expect delays to persist as backlogs are cleared and network imbalances are worked out.

Shippers await DoJ posture on tariff refunds

Importers are recalculating costs following the US Supreme Court’s ruling against the bulk of the Trump administration’s tariffs . Trans-Pacific shippers are facing widespread uncertainty as factories across China and Southeast Asia come back online after the Lunar New Year holiday. CBP has stopped collecting duties on tariffs imposed under IEEPA following last week’s Supreme Court ruling. However, new 10% global tariffs implemented under Section 122 of the Trade Act have forced shippers to recalculate landing costs. Importers are also seeking clarity on the potential for tariff refunds. So far, importers have filed more than 2,000 cases with the Court of International Trade to sue for refunds. The big question is whether the Department of Justice will stand in their way. It has until Friday to contest a motion to expedite refunds through the CIT. The case will have significant legal implications for many plaintiffs, and much depends on whether the DOJ will weigh in and try to delay refunds. If the court rules in favor of prompt payment of refunds, other shippers will be able to use the legal challenge as a template for their own lawsuits. CNBC estimated that around 300,000 shippers have so far paid tariffs, and the amount of potential refunds could rise as high as $175 billion. Early indications are that the White House will take steps to obstruct or slow refunds. In the meantime, shippers continue to seek more clarity on the new tariff regime .

🤔 Did you know ?

The earliest the IMOs delayed net zero emissions framework can now come into effect would be 2029 after it was derailed by countries including the United States last year. The Global Maritime Forum and DNV have been looking at different scenarios for when the framework might be introduced. The best case would see it begin to introduced in 2028. Prolonged political deadlocks could delay its introduction for several years.

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👋 See you next week, The Merchant team

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