Fresh court ruling causes more tariff uncertainty

Figure of the week

4.6% A new study by consultancy Kearney suggested that US manufacturing imports have risen by 4.6% in 2025 to $2.98 trillion, while local industrial production had fallen by 0.4%. The consultancy’s report said that shippers were increasingly diversifying sourcing towards low-cost Asian markets outside China but tariffs had made little impact on reshoring of manufacturing.

Quote of the week

“We’re looking at (slow steaming) ourselves. The cost benefit is quite compelling. But if we don’t… actually retire some of the ships that have not been retired over the last seven years, this is going to be extremely bumpy.” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc believes high energy costs will soon force carriers to adopt new strategies to absorb excess capacity.

Fresh court ruling causes more tariff uncertainty

The Trump administration has suffered a fresh setback to its tariff policies after a new court ruling went against it . The US Court of International Trade ruled against the Section 122 tariffs, saying they were not intended to address trade deficits. However, the 10% global tariffs will remain in place for the time being. The court’s ruling applied only to the litigants — two small businesses and the state of Washington. In addition, a US appeals court had already paused the lower court’s ruling following an appeal from the administration. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit imposed a short-term administrative stay and said it was considering a longer pause. The litigants now have the option of contesting the appeal. On the day of the original ruling, the founders of one of the companies that launched the lawsuit had said the ruling was “a major victory for small businesses like ours that depend on fair and predictable trade policy”. “Today’s decision helps ensure that businesses like ours are not unfairly burdened by unlawful trade restrictions.” President Donald Trump blamed the court’s decision on “two radical left judges.” Despite the unfavorable optics of a second court defeat, analysts have mixed opinions on the impact of the ruling. The Section 122 tariffs were only due to last until July unless extended by Congress. At that point, the administration planned to continue its policy under a different set of laws, section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Trade representative Jamieson Greer is currently engaged in several investigations of trading partners under Section 301 that could allow Washington to impose new tariffs. Greer is set to complete those investigations just as the section 122 tariffs expire. What this means for shippers is that the ruling is likely to lead to more uncertainty and raise the possibility of a new round of wrangling over refunds. Any potential end to tariffs at their current levels, remains distant .

Surcharge volatility buffets air freight shippers

Air freight shippers have been receiving mixed blessings, with favorable spot rate shifts but volatile fuel surcharges . Spot rates between China and the US were largely stable, while rates between Europe and the US fell by 10% in April month on month. However, the picture regarding fuel surcharges was more varied. Surcharges out of Hong Kong actually fell slightly while those out of Europe rose due to jet fuel shortages. The wider picture is that jet fuel prices have started to level out and come down from April highs. Analysts say that this is because the market has started to adjust to the Middle East war and is shifting sourcing for jet fuel and energy supplies in general. Widespread scrapping of unprofitable flights has also eased demand for fuel, leading the market to stabilize. Even so, elevated jet fuel prices have pushed air cargo rates 30% higher than before the war. One effect of this is that more shippers have started to consider using ocean freight services .

Peak season at risk from consumer dip

A recent fall in consumer confidence has led the NRF to suggest that the traditional US peak shipping season might fail to materialize completely this year . The NRF and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker that rising inflation and falling consumer confidence could continue to dampen import volumes. That would make 2026 the second year in a row without the typical August-to-October peak season. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said that containerized imports in Q1 were down year on year and that demand was weakening. “Stalling restocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook,” he said. In a statement accompanying the forecast, the NRF said that May and June might see moderately higher US imports year on year. But it should be remembered that these figures would represent artificial growth because they would be compared to May and June 2025. That was when imports fell sharply following the Trump administration’s Liberation Day tariffs. At the same time, the University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment index, which fell to a record low. “Consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures led by soaring prices at the pump,” said survey director Joanne Hsu. “Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.” However, some expressed different views on peak season . Yang Ming chairman Tsai Feng-ming said during a recent Taipei Shipowners Association meeting that the usual Q3 peak season could be brought forward rather than disappearing completely as a result of the Iran war. He said Yang Ming was anticipating a slight recovery ahead of the peak season schedule. Overall, whether or not peak season disappears or is brought forward, Linerlytica said that shippers could expect likely rate rises through the second half of May. One reason for this was the low number of new ship deliveries over the past two months, which has acted as a brake on capacity growth .

🤔 Did you know ?

U.S. Transportation secretary Sean P Duffy and the Maritime Administration (MARAD) have launched an initiative to the explore how small modular nuclear reactors can be used to power commercial shipping. Initially, MARAD will be inviting innovators and industry stakeholders to submit information on how small reactors could aid efficiency, affordability, national security, and how they could be easily scaled.

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