Shippers prepare for more tariff upheaval

Figure of the week

12.5% The USTR is proposing new tariffs of up to 12.5% on 59 countries and the European Union owing to “forced labor” it has discovered in global supply chains. The new tariffs, will, however, largely replace existing measures rather than add to them.

Quote of the week

“The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labor is unacceptable. This creates a dynamic where American workers are forced to compete globally on an unlevel playing field.” Trade Representative Jameison Greer explaining why he has proposed new tariffs on 59 US trading partners following a series of USTR investigations ordered by President Donald Trump.

Frontloading drives early and brief peak season

After weeks of speculating on whether a peak season would materialize, analysts appear to have settled on a consensus: peak season is here, but it will be brief . The most recent data from the NRF underlines suspicions that an early peak season has already arrived. The NRF upgraded its forecast for June imports. The spike will be largely driven by front-loading, it says. The front-loading has mainly been provoked by fears of new tariffs once the US completes a round of trade-related investigations into major trading partners, and by the possibility of higher fuel prices. However, the NRF is also lowering its forecasts for import volumes later in the year - meaning the spike will likely last only into July. “We expect to see a year-on-year increase this month. It is partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could start coming in August,” said NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict involving Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.” Carriers have been disciplined and successful in their capacity management. This has enabled them to sustain several rounds of GRIs that might otherwise have fallen flat. One immediate effect for shippers is reduced reliability. “On the Far East westbound trade, about the best reliability you can get is 60%, and most shippers we deal with have already built buffers into their supply chains to take account of that because it has been bad for a long time,” one industry insider was quoted by The Loadstar as saying. Shippers are likely to face extra pressure on capacity in coming weeks and higher rates, but this is likely to ease off as we move into July .

E-commerce demand adds air freight pressure

Around a year ago, The Merchant warned that volatility would become the new normal for US air freight shippers. 2026 may have started with everything looking calm on the air freight market, but the Middle East war has underscored how quickly geopolitical events can change everything. The result was that air cargo rates climbed 36% year on year in May , according to WorldACD. The war has led to redistributions of capacity, rerouting of aircraft and the introduction of fuel surcharges,. So far US shippers have been less affected than those in Europe. Cargo volumes have also proved more resilient than expected throughout the year. This can be seen in higher e-commerce demand between China and the US, leading to pressure on capacity. Currently, capacity is hard to find within seven days, forcing shippers to plan bookings further in advance. Flight schedules are unreliable and can change at short notice. On the positive side, relatively extensive capacity on the Europe-US trade has led to overall rates dropping 10% compared with March. Shippers can also look forward to fuel surcharges falling in the coming weeks , assuming events do not once again reach crisis point in the Middle East.

Shippers prepare for more tariff upheaval

🤔 Did you know ?

CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd are among the ocean carriers to have announced new surcharges and rate rises due to surging early peak-season demand. The surcharges affect several routes from the Mediterranean to the east coast of North America.

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