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The Merchant · n°129 · January 9, 2025

Carriers threaten surcharges as strike deadline nears

Figure of the week

7 billion In dollars, this is the level of the financial loss suffered by Egypt in 2024, due to the collapse of Suez Canal revenues caused by the Red Sea crisis. Traffic there fell by about 60%.

Quote of the week

“In the middle of a minefield, European trade could still come out all right in 2025.” Arthur Barillas, CEO of OVRSEA, on LinkedIn. Throughout January, find his transport predictions for 2025.

After Chinese New Year, a new era will open

2025 began with spot rates stabilized between Asia and Europe and this should last all of January. Less than a month before Chinese New Year (January 29), the trade is holding firm and access to capacity is not always easy. We also note container shortages on the Ningbo side. We should expect an increase in delays in the coming days as CNY approaches: that’s classic.

What is less classic, however, is what awaits us in February. Next month, two new alliances will begin: Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) and Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM and Yang Ming). Number one MSC will from now on go solo and Ocean Alliance remains unchanged. Could this new landscape, and the network reorganizations it implies, cause the number of blank sailings to explode? Several experts are wondering. Linerlytica predicts a sharp rise in these, particularly on the Asia-Europe trade (+50% compared to 2023), which would slow the fall in rates. But not everyone shares this view: Sea-Intelligence for the moment measures a very low number of blank sailings after CNY. This can still change, it’s true, but the overcapacity scenario remains possible. The introduction of the new alliances could indeed encourage carriers to maintain capacity everywhere to capture market share… even at the cost of letting rates melt away.

United States: will the sword of Damocles of the port strike fall?

This Tuesday, the ILA dockers’ union and the port operators represented by the USMX resumed negotiations, according to several sources. But they have barely a week left to agree on a subject as fundamental as it is divisive: port automation. In case of failure, the strike will once again paralyze the US ports of the Atlantic coast and the Gulf of Mexico, which could cause a shock wave as the days pass. An agreement before January 15 is a very uncertain scenario.

The scenario of a short strike (as in the fall) is more likely. That is in any case the view of Peter Tirschwell, vice-president of S&P Global, who recalls that Donald Trump has already sided with the ILA. His hypothesis, particularly credible, is that Trump will put phenomenal pressure on the USMX, before appearing as the savior by ending the strike just after his arrival at the White House, on January 20.

In the meantime, uncertainty reigns: carriers are preparing for the strike. Maersk has asked its customers to pick up their loaded containers and return empty containers in anticipation of a possible strike. For its part, CMA CGM finally postponed from January 1 to January 15 its PSS (Peak Season Surcharge) of USD 1500/container between India / Middle East and the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. From the western Mediterranean (and Morocco), a PSS of USD 1300/TEU and USD 2000/FEU will be applied starting January 18. Hapag-Lloyd is announcing a Work Disruption Surcharge (WDS) on the Transatlantic, and a Work Interruption Destination Surcharge (WID) on the Transpacific, in case of a strike. MSC and Zim had announced surcharges as early as December.

Spot rates on the Transatlantic (Europe - United States direction) are not yet affected by the prospect of a strike, which is not the case for the transpacific trade, where rates are climbing. Drewry expects them, moreover, to continue rising, against a backdrop of a GRI on January 1 and robust demand.

No clouds (yet) on the horizon for international air freight

After a spectacular 2024, global air freight begins 2025 on the same trend. Lufthansa Cargo says it is optimistic: “The forecasts available for air freight, but also for economic and commercial development, point to further growth,” the carrier told the media outlet The Loadstar. The multiple global disruptions would benefit air freight, according to the German group. Not to mention that e-commerce, which has boosted air freight from Asia, will remain strong this year, even if Donald Trump’s future administration will no doubt try to slow its growth from China. Flows from India and Vietnam are also expected to grow strongly this year. This optimism is shared by several carriers, including Delta Cargo.

On the ground, the situation has calmed down since the end of the holiday period. Access to capacity has improved considerably from Asia, but a rebound in demand, and thus in prices, is expected as CNY approaches. After a clear decline since the end of December, rates are for now stable.

In brief. Etihad Cargo launches a new service from Paris CDG. The carrier inaugurated, this Tuesday, a weekly service between Paris CDG and Abu Dhabi, using a Boeing 777 freighter. From its Abu Dhabi hub, Etihad then offers cargo links to or from Ezhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Hanoi or Zhengzhou.

👋 See you next week, The Merchant team

Sources

Go further

How much does a freight forwarder cost, and how to avoid hidden fees? → How to import from China to Europe, step by step → BAF, GRI, demurrage: how to read the surcharges on your freight invoice →

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