The Merchant · n°148 · May 29, 2025

US shippers win temporary EU tariff reprieve

🚢 Rates gone wild!
🇪🇺 EU-US: a tragic ball?
✈️ A crisis of models...

Figure of the week

50% The surcharge that Donald Trump threatened to impose on the European Union as early as the beginning of June… After a phone exchange with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, he agreed to postpone this measure to July 9 to allow discussions to continue.

Quote of the week

“We’re not looking to make sneakers and T-shirts.” Donald Trump, on May 25, to reporters aboard Air Force One, explaining that the goal of tariffs was to promote the production of complex manufactured goods, such as tanks or that “AI thing with the computers.”

Rate surge: how far will the fire spread?

As we write, maritime freight rates on the Asia–United States axis are climbing sharply. They are driven by a combined effect of the revival of Sino-American trade and genuine tariff-anticipation strategies. Since the announcement of a truce in the tariff war between Washington and Beijing, the volumes of goods exported from China to the United States have jumped: both coasts, East and West, are flooded with Chinese products. According to Linerlytica, more than 560,000 TEU per week are now mobilized toward the United States, compared to a low of 377,000 TEU a few weeks ago. And spot rates have followed this increase, while the general rate increases decided last week should hold. And the figures are impressive: according to Peter Sand (Xeneta), carriers are reportedly aiming for a 60% increase in rates on the route between China and the East Coast by early June (compared to the prices announced in May).

The rapid reactivation of suspended services and the arrival of new players illustrate the rush of carriers to capture this unprecedented demand. But this dynamic is not without consequences for all global supply chains. European ports, already weakened by significant labor movements (as in Antwerp, or Le Havre earlier in the year), are experiencing serious congestion: up to 15 days’ wait to dock at certain terminals in Northern Europe. But the phenomenon is spreading: China and the United States are beginning to be hit. In Shanghai or Ningbo, waiting times frequently exceed 36 hours. In Busan, it’s even 72 hours! And the situation does not seem set to improve, especially as the same problems are found in the United States. Drewry warns of a proliferation of delays that could disrupt supply plans while lengthening delivery times. In short, supply chains are under strain.

These tensions are not limited to the United States-China axis alone. While rates between Asia and Europe remain more moderate than on the trans-Pacific route, a FAK rate increase is planned for June 1. For Héloïse Roux, Procurement Manager at Ovrsea, one thing is clear: “in June, ships are almost full and it is becoming very difficult to obtain space. If the situation continues, we should expect a second rate increase on June 15.” A reality that therefore requires anticipating one’s bookings by allowing 4 to 5 weeks’ notice to secure spaces at market prices.

US-EU: from waltz to danse macabre?

After China, the European Union? While the situation appears to be calming between China and the United States, the American president opened a new front with the European Union. By threatening the Europeans with a 50% tariff surcharge as early as June 1 — that is, well before the July 9 date — he sowed panic — and opened new questions before backtracking on his statements after a highly publicized phone call with Ursula von der Leyen. This explosive statement came as trade negotiations are stalling: the trade deficit between the United States and the EU — which reached a record 40.7 billion euros in March 2025 according to Eurostat — is at the heart of the grievances expressed by Trump.

The instability of recent months already has concrete repercussions on transatlantic trade. European exporters had massively anticipated the protectionist measures, as shown by the 59% jump in exports to the United States in March, for a total of 71.4 billion euros. But it might not stop there! Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, points out that the reprieve granted by Donald Trump on Sunday, May 25 could lead to a phenomenon of massive “frontloading” from Europe to the United States. This could exert additional pressure on supply chains as many European ports — starting with Antwerp — are congested, and delays are multiplying.

Despite these tensions, the EU continues to present itself as a reasonable partner and to seek common ground. It has notably proposed increased investments in the United States and enhanced purchases of liquefied natural gas and semiconductors. But this might not be enough. As Nathan Sheets (Global Chief Economist at Citigroup) sums up, Europe remains the “most at risk” partner in the current trade negotiations with Washington.

What an atmosphere…

Air pockets … before a take-off again?

The air freight sector continues to go through a zone of strong turbulence. We have already recalled how much, in the United States, the removal of the de minimis threshold had caused a drop in air imports from China. According to Charles Marrale, CEO of ExFreight, this measure has already changed consumption habits. Customers now prefer to buy locally — notably via Amazon. In doing so, they reduce trans-Pacific flows. The drop in demand thus leads to a reduction in yield forecasts for 2025, as indicated by Andrew Matters, director of public-policy analysis at the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The situation could become even more complicated as the EU is considering similar measures: for example, the removal of the VAT exemption under 150 euros or the introduction of parcel-processing fees. The United Kingdom could do the same… All this would necessarily contribute to increasing costs for professionals in the sector, in line with what has already been observed in the United States.

Nevertheless, this climate of uncertainty opens up genuine windows of opportunity — for the companies that know how to seize them, of course. For many players, whose remarks were reported in The Loadstar, one thing is clear: the digitalization of the profession has become essential to optimize forecasts and increase resilience. From this point of view, the companies most advanced in this transformation could come out ahead in a strained market. Still in line with the necessary agility that the current context must inspire, Arno Hausch, head of air freight at Flexport for Germany, Austria and Italy, thus recommends favoring short contracts (monthly or quarterly) to better adapt to tariff volatility.

In short, as in any period of transition, traditional models are in crisis — but it remains possible to invent new ways of moving forward.

👋 See you next week, The Merchant team

Sources

← The Merchant Subscribe to The Merchant