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The Merchant · n°156 · July 24, 2025

Strike disruption will be felt “immediately”, shippers warned

Figure of the week

819,131 The total number of containers in TEUs imported into the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in June. This is a 25% increase compared with May 2025, but a 3% decrease compared with June 2024.

Quote of the week

“Probably 10 or 15%, we haven’t decided yet.” In an interview with Real America’s Voice, Donald Trump spoke about his plans to introduce a uniform tariff rate for more than 150 countries.

The rate saga continues through summer 2025

On the Asia-Europe and Europe-United States routes, tensions remain high on rates. Between Asia and Europe, capacity is under pressure: ships are full through mid-August. But the first signs of easing are appearing. According to the SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index), rates toward Northern Europe have begun to fall. Lower ship utilization since last week could suggest an early ebb of the peak season.

From Europe to the United States, the situation is more fragmented: the ports of the US Northeast remain congested, unlike the Southern ports toward which carriers are posting rate decreases of around 15%. The situation is complicated by the announcement of the 30% tariff increase on European products starting August 1. By triggering a temporary rush on shipments, this heightens logistics pressure in the short term.

On the trans-Pacific lanes, rates continue to fall. Last week, the SCFI index again lost 5%. Indeed, the persistence of a capacity surplus compromises any attempt to raise rates in mid-July. The volume of “blank sailings” reaches 11% of total capacity toward the US west coast, compared with 9% in June, but charters nonetheless remain high and shipowners continue to order vessels and to invest. This inertia offers little flexibility in the face of demand fluctuations, even as shipments from Asia have collapsed since the start of the tariff war: -8% in April, -15% in May, according to Container Trade Statistics.

Lars Jensen, founder of Vespucci Maritime, notes that this volatility, fueled by geopolitical crises, prevents any lasting logistics stabilization. After a moment of frontloading in May-June, US importers have therefore adopted a wait-and-see posture. The peaks and troughs of demand, accentuated by the carriers’ difficulties in quickly adjusting their supply, cause real imbalances. For Lars Jensen, this phenomenon is bound to repeat itself, with occasional rate spikes followed by brutal corrections. In this chaotic context, the tariff increases announced for August 1 on Chinese, European and Mexican products should reinforce the instability…

The canal of discord

Two weeks ago, Le Chargeur told you about the Panamanian government’s plans to secure the canal’s future… But while awaiting the realization of these projects, the situation of this strategic site in global trade is crystallizing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. In March, the Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison announced the sale of 80% of its port assets - that is, 43 ports in 23 countries, including two in Panama - to a consortium made up of BlackRock and MSC. Initially little involved, China is now threatening this operation, valued at 22.8 billion dollars, by conditioning its approval on the entry of the Chinese company Cosco into the capital, according to the Wall Street Journal. While BlackRock, MSC and Hutchison say they are open to Chinese participation, the exclusive negotiations, which are due to conclude on July 27, leave little room to reach a new agreement in time.

This geopolitical standoff is inseparable from the double crisis the Panama Canal is going through. First, the persistent drought caused a 36% drop in traffic in one year, disrupting global logistics chains. Starting in May, the canal experienced a form of recovery: transits rebounded by nearly 25%. Moreover, the growing involvement of Chinese players in the canal’s strategic ports fuels Washington’s mistrust. Donald Trump had thus described the sale to BlackRock and MSC as a “reclaiming” of the canal in the face of Chinese influence, and expressed his intention to regain control of the zone, demonstrating a renewed imperial claim over the territories (Panama, Greenland, Canada) deemed strategic by the White House… In this context, Cosco’s entry into the capital of the Panamanian ports could be very badly interpreted by Donald Trump and lead to a new flare-up of tensions between China and the United States.

¡Que viva México!

The United States is imposing sanctions on Mexican airlines. Mexico is indeed accused by the Trump administration of having violated the 2015 bilateral air transport agreement. At the heart of the dispute: the forced transfer of all cargo operations from Mexico City’s main airport to the secondary Felipe Ángeles airport in 2023 (AFIA), a still-underdeveloped site. This decision, taken without consultation, is said to have caused major operational costs for US companies and a significant disruption of the market. In response, the Department of Transportation (DOT) now requires that Mexican carriers submit all their flight schedules for validation. It also prohibits charter flights operated by wide-body aircraft without prior authorization, and it is considering withdrawing the antitrust immunity of the Delta-Aeromexico partnership.

In this matter, the Trump administration is supported by the US carriers. The president of the Cargo Airline Association hailed a decision that “restores fairness” and sends a deterrent signal to other governments likely to act in a similar manner. Mexico, for its part, contests these accusations. Beyond the Mexican case, Washington is also warning European countries that unilateral restrictions aimed at limiting noise around airports could lead to retaliatory measures. This is notably the case for the Netherlands. This standoff reflects an American willingness to toughen the defense of its economic interests in civil aviation.

👋 See you next week, The Merchant team

Sources

Go further

How much does a freight forwarder cost, and how to avoid hidden fees? → How to import from China to Europe, step by step → BAF, GRI, demurrage: how to read the surcharges on your freight invoice →

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