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The Merchant · n°179 · February 12, 2026

Blanking risks surge as carrier desperation grows

Figure of the week

40% U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has called on Taiwan to shift 40% of its entire semiconductor supply chain to shift to the U.S. Taiwan has told Washington that the proposal was “impossible”.

Quote of the week

“US President Trump’s claims that India will slash duties to zero, stop importing Russian oil, and raise US imports to US $500bn have not yet been confirmed by the Indian authorities. They look unrealistic to us, which in turn raises risks of US backtracking.” Alexandra Herman, lead economist at Oxford Economics, expresses doubts on whether the much-touted US-India trade deal will live up to expectations.

US-India deal - supply chain gamechanger or hype?

The US-India trade deal announced last week could potentially reshape supply chains and have a huge impact on container shipping , but only if it lives up to the hype. That, though, is a big “if”. Manufacturing goods, textiles and leather will be among the winners in India from the agreement, which will see tariffs cut on Indian goods from 50% to 18%. That could lead to a huge potential boost for India’s role in global supply chains. New Delhi appears to be betting that this will be the case in other areas too. India has also announced that it is to create its own domestic container shipping line to compete with the international giants over time. However, many analysts question whether the detail of the deal will be able to live up to what the announcements have promised. In response to the lowering of US tariffs, Indian PM Narendra Modi has apparently promised to lower duties on US goods to zero, invest in $500 billion worth of American goods and stop buying Russian oil. It has also promised to open India’s politically sensitive and long-protected agricultural market to American goods. But many analysts have identified a mismatch in statements coming out between the two parties. There has so far been no official confirmation by the Indian authorities that they will stop buying Russian oil. New Delhi Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that far from opening Indian agriculture markets to US imports, the deal would protect its agriculture. Up until now the Modi government has been very wary of upsetting India’s politically powerful farming sector. Likewise, analysts say that if India stops buying Russian crude this would likely lead to significantly higher fuel prices. All of this could mean that the detail of the deal falls far short of the headlines. It would not be the first time the Trump administration has boasted of big wins as a result of its tariff policy only for the deal to be derailed. Last month President Donald Trump raised tariffs on South Korean goods back to 25% from 15%. He cited a delay in South Korea’s parliament in approving the deal. It remains to be seen then whether the US-India trade agreement will live up to its promises. If it does, shippers can expect to see significantly higher imports from India into the US, which will in turn soak up container shipping capacity. For now they should be wary of rehsaping suppy chains until more detail has emerged.

Air cargo market wrestles with e-commerce exodus

Global air freight markets have proved more resilient than expected so far in 2026 but are facing mounting pressure . Indications are that the ecommerce boom is starting to fade and freeing up capacity. For ocean freight the pre-Chinese Lunar New Year spike largely failed to materialize. This was not the case for air freight. However, the seasonal rise in the latter may have obscured a longer-term decline. Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall Van de Wouw said: “Asia is such a big exporter of air freight it is difficult to draw any conclusions on what the market was signaling in January because of the Lunar New Year holiday and the fluctuations it causes. “Much of January strength in air cargo volumes is likely calendar related rather than a clear indicator of improvements in underlying demand.” The data paints a picture of declining exports from China largely caused by the de minimis freight ban. Chinese customs data for December show a 9% fall in low-value ecommerce exports year on year. The full-year picture for 2025 shows the same category down 28% year on year on 2024. If airlines want to avoid similar falling rates to those seen in ocean freight they may well halt plans to acquire new freighter conversions. However, unlike ocean freight air freight is unlikely to see the same capacity overmatch witnessed in the ocean freight market. New freighter availability has been constrained by supply chain backlogs, aging fleets and rising maintenance costs. This may help to prop up rates in the long term but for the short term, pre-CNY bookings need to be made as soon as possible .

Blanking risks surge as carrier desperation grows

Ocean carriers are planning to step up their efforts to prop up rates after a pre-Chinese Lunar New Year spike failed to materialize . Carriers are set to respond to the latest fall in transpacific rates by adopting a more aggressive program of blank sailings. Average spot rates on the Shanghai to Los Angeles leg were down 8% week on week, according to Drewry. The Shanghai to New York leg saw a 5% drop. “Average spot rates have fallen on all Far East front hauls to Europe and the US in the past week, but there may be a sting in the tail for shippers,” said Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand. Carriers will begin blanking sailings more aggressively in a bid to tighten capacity and bring the decline in freight rates under control. Carriers have often resorted to blankings over the past few months, but Drewry’s blank sailings tracker indicates that they are likely to intensify significantly over the next three weeks. In the current market, however, new blank sailings could be announced at very short notice, leading to potential delays, said Sand . “ If a shipper expects cargo to leave port on a certain date, it should factor in the risk of that service being blanked, potentially at the last minute , and the subsequent ripple effects of delays on their supply chain,” he added.

🤔 Did you know ?

Far from shying away from their planned return to Red Sea routings due to rising tensions in Iran, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have doubled down. The two carriers said that their transits will be secured by naval assistance, though they did not offer any further details. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s announcement stressed the importance of the schedule reliability the new routings would provide.

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👋 See you next week, The Merchant team

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