EU’s late dodge sidesteps US trade conflict

Figure of the week

$5.5 billion

The estimated cost of rises in the price of bunker fuel to ocean carriers as a result of war in the Middle East, stands at $5.5 billion so far, according to Sea-Intelligence. Carriers are attempting to recover that increase in operating costs through fuel surcharges.

Quote of the week

“Foreign shipping lines… should not be operating our terminals here in the United States. That should be American stevedoring companies. They don’t care about our ports. It’s all [about] profit generating.” ILWU President Bobby Olvera accuses US West Coast employers of being dominated by foreign carriers. It appears the union plans to make this a major issue in the upcoming talks for 2028 longshore contracts.

Carriers tighten screw to sustain surge

In recent years, US shippers have learned to expect the unexpected, but the latest surprise spot rate surge at least gives some ground for optimism . The jump in container spot rates from Asia to the US may indicate an early peak season on the trans-Pacific, something many analysts had given up for lost. What is not clear, though, is whether this early peak reflects growing underlying optimism or a confluence of other factors. Growing numbers of blank sailings and fuel-linked surcharges could potentially put upward pressure on spot and FAK rates. Service contracts could also be playing their role, as some shippers may have been trying to move freight before higher contract levels take effect. But Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen attributed it to strengthening demand. “I’m fairly optimistic about the peak season,” he said in an earnings call. “Demand at the moment is quite strong.” Many major indexes are showing the highest trans-Pacific spot rates so far this year. A variety of GRIs imposed by carriers in recent months have failed. But it appears the May 15 increase has hit home. What next? Global Port Tracker figures are expecting an uptick in import volumes this month, but the prediction for July and August is for weaker demand. Other industry analysts believe shippers should prepare for a more sustained period of stronger demand rather than a short-lived spike. They believe carriers will be preparing to tighten capacity to ensure the surge lasts as long as possible .

Higher air freight rates mark the “new normal”

The jet fuel crisis that marked the air freight market appears to be receding, at least for now . Jet fuel rates remain far above pre-conflict levels and shortages are continuing in some areas, such as Europe. However, overall the market appears to be adjusting, capacity is recovering and jet fuel prices are receding. They are now about 80% higher than a year ago, compared to 100% higher in early May. On the other hand, Freightos data indicates that while the panic may have eased, pricing has not. Its global air index continues to register well above pre-crisis levels. What is the upshot for shippers from all this? On the one hand, fuel surcharges from Hong Kong are beginning to fall. However, spot rates appear to have stabilized at levels higher than pre-conflict levels. At the same time, analysts warn that should the military situation in the Middle East escalate, further fuel shortages, rising surcharges and wider economic damage could be the result. For now, shippers need to face the fact that higher prices are the new normal .

EU’s late dodge sidesteps US trade conflict

The EU looks set to wave through the US trade deal after months of resistance – removing one more potential problem from US shippers’ plates . The bloc appears set to give the go-ahead to the trade deal with the US after several holdups. Had the union not ratified the deal before July 4, Donald Trump planned to raise tariffs to “much higher levels”. Now that threat has been avoided after more than five hours of talks by EU lawmakers. The EU Parliament had threatened to derail the trade deal struck with the US after Trump threatened to seize Greenland. It paused ratification again when the Supreme Court struck down a huge part of Trump’s tariff policies. In doing so, however, it sparked the president’s fury. Trump accused the union of not complying with the terms of the agreement. Further problems in the EU Parliament were averted after the bloc agreed to include a safeguard mechanism in the deal that would allow Brussels to suspend the agreement if it considered that Washington had changed the terms. As it stands, the Trump administration has capped tariffs on most European goods at 15%. The EU, on the other hand, will fully remove import duties on US goods. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen called on the EU Parliament to swiftly ratify the deal. For shippers, it will be one less tariff-related problem to worry about .

🤔 Did you know ?

Chinese exports are proving remarkably resilient despite years of supply chain diversification efforts, a new report suggests. According to Braemar figures container throughput in early 2026 is growing at 3.5% in China, 2.5% in the rest of Asia, 0.5% in Europe and -5% in the US.

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